Football Data Science

Learn data science through football. Test what football believes. Try the models yourself.

For fans, players, coaches and analysts. Every idea starts with a football question, and you don't need a maths background.

Written by Bryan McGuire, a data scientist with more than 35 years' experience, using real match data.

Start learning Myth or Maths

Start with a question

New here? Start here

I'm here for the football

Home advantage, derbies, 2–0 leads: football's favourite sayings tested against real Scottish results.

Myth or Maths

I want to learn data science

Start from a penalty and build up to machine learning, one football question at a time. No maths background needed.

I work in football

Decisions with real stakes: who to sign, who marks whom, how to rotate the squad. Try the models, or talk to me about your own data.

New on the site

Are TV games duller? Hypothesis tests and p-values

Premiership games moved from Saturday 3pm, mostly for television, have more goals, and a shuffle test says the gap is no fluke. How a hypothesis test works, what a p-value does and doesn't tell you, and why this one still isn't about the cameras.

Beginner Part 18 of Statistics Through Football

Is a half-time lead worth what it looks like? Matching like with like

Sides a goal up at half-time win 70% of the time; sides level win 32%. But the sides in front were usually the better sides before kick-off. Matching each leader with level sides that were just as fancied beforehand shows what the lead itself is worth, and what matching can never fix.

Intermediate Part 7 of Cause and Effect Through Football

Not supported

Are left-footed penalty takers worse?

Left-footers are supposed to be the weaker penalty takers. Across 1,557 penalties in StatsBomb's open data, left-footed and right-footed kicks went in exactly as often: 74.2% each, and the same in shootouts.

26 October 2026 Beginner Myth or Maths

Who gets there first? Timing a pass, and the cost of waiting

A pass is a race between the ball and the nearest defender. Work out when each gets there, turn the gap into a chance, and one touch on the ball turns a switch that gets there 95% of the time into one that gets there 78%. The idea behind pitch control and the Action and Reaction board.

Intermediate Part 13 of Decision Science Through Football