SPFL Lab
An explainable prediction engine for the Scottish Premiership. Every forecast is a probability, every model is backtested, and every one is scored in public.
Open the prediction boardNext fixtures
Home, draw and away chances from the board's team-strength model, updated every morning. Open a match for the reasons behind its numbers.
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Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
50% Falkirk26% draw24% St Johnstone
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Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
84% Celtic11% draw4% St Mirren
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Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
48% Hibernian25% draw28% Dundee United
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Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
35% Kilmarnock26% draw38% Aberdeen
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Sat 21 Nov, 17:45
35% Dundee24% draw41% Heart of Midlothian
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Sat 21 Nov, 20:00
16% Motherwell21% draw63% Rangers
Match probabilities
Home, draw and away chances for each fixture, from each model and as a consensus, with the result added once it is played.
Model leaderboard
Elo, Poisson, Dixon-Coles, machine learning and the bookmakers' implied odds, ranked by log loss, Brier score, ranked probability score and calibration.
Season simulation
The remaining fixtures simulated thousands of times: expected points, title, European places and relegation chances.
These probabilities are produced by statistical models and are intended for analysis and education. Football remains uncertain and model predictions will frequently be wrong. This is not a betting service.