Longer investigations into football questions, with the data, method and limits laid out.
Twenty-four seasons of Bet365 prices on 9,646 Scottish league matches. The odds are remarkably accurate in the middle, the margin has swung from 12% to 6.5% and back up, and backing outsiders is by far the worst bet.
Intermediate
Goal difference explains 93% of the points a Scottish side takes, at about 0.63 points per goal. Some teams beat their goals by four wins' worth in a season, but it barely carries into the next one. 572 team-seasons show why.
Intermediate
A title can be sealed in the table months after the numbers already know. Simulating 25 Scottish Premiership seasons from every third round, the model is typically 90% sure of the champion by round 12. The table doesn't settle it until round 34.
Intermediate
Eleven predictors, 5,258 Scottish Premiership matches. Picking the most winners is the wrong test. Log loss, Brier score and calibration tell you which models actually understand football, and the bookmaker still beats them all.
Intermediate