Models
Each model shows its inputs, its assumptions and where it breaks. Change the numbers and see what moves. The articles explain the ideas behind them; this is where you try them. Which method does what? See the cheat sheet.
Before kick-off
Poisson Match Predictor
Set each side's expected goals and see every scoreline's probability, plus win, draw and loss.
Dixon-Coles Match Predictor
The famous fix for Poisson's low-scoring draws, side by side with plain Poisson, and a look at when it fixes nothing.
Elo Ratings Simulator
Two ratings and home advantage give a win expectancy; see how far a win, draw or defeat moves each side.
Logistic Regression Match Predictor
Enter two sides' points from the table and their recent results, and see the home, draw and away chances from a model trained on 20 SPFL seasons.
Decision Tree Match Predictor
Enter two sides' points from the table and their recent results, and follow a decision tree's three questions down to a group of past matches and its home, draw and away chances.
Team Ratings Match Predictor
Pick any two Premiership clubs and see expected goals, the home, draw and away chances and the likeliest scores, from every club's attack and defence rating.
Similar Matches Finder
Enter two sides' points from the table and their recent results, and see the 20 most similar past matches, what happened in them, and the forecast they add up to.
Naive Bayes Match Predictor
Enter two sides' points from the table and their recent results, and watch each clue shift the home, draw and away chances, then see what counting the same news twice does.
Next Season Forecaster
Pick a club and see its seasons as a time series, the smoothed level and next season's points forecast with an honest range.
During and after the match
Hold the lead
Set the minute, the lead and each side's expected goals, and see how often that lead ends in a win, a draw or a defeat.
Did we deserve to win?
Enter each side's shots as xG and see who the chances favoured, and the points each side deserved.
Shot Lab
Drag the shooter, the keeper and the defenders and watch the expected goals change, from a model trained on 95,000 real shots with every nearby player's position.
Goals from Shots Calculator
Enter a team's shots and shots on target per game and see how many goals that usually brings over a season.
Team Style Map
Every Premiership team-season since 2000 placed by dominance and physical play and sorted into four styles. Pick a club and find the seasons most like it.
Players, luck and belief
Penalty Shootout Simulator
Set each side's penalty conversion rate and see how often each wins the shootout, sudden death included.
Penalty Game Solver
Set how often a taker scores on each side, with the keeper guessing right or wrong, and see how often each should go which way.
Academy Selection Simulator
5,000 young players with no link between technique and athleticism. Let an academy pick the best and watch a strong link appear among those it picks.
Form or luck?
A striker who never gets better or worse still has droughts and hot streaks. See how long, and how often, by chance alone.
How good is he really?
A new signing scores four penalties from four. Combine what you believed before with his record and see how good he is likely to be.
Judging forecasts
Score your own predictions
Give a match your home, draw and away chances, pick the result, and see whether your forecast beat someone who knows nothing and the league averages.
Can you beat the bookies?
Five real Scottish Premiership matches from the last 23 seasons. Give each your chances, then see whether you beat the bookmaker's.