Models
Each model shows its inputs, its assumptions and where it breaks. Change the numbers and see what moves. The articles explain the ideas behind them; this is where you try them.
Before kick-off
Poisson Match Predictor
Set each side's expected goals and see every scoreline's probability, plus win, draw and loss.
Dixon-Coles Match Predictor
The famous fix for Poisson's low-scoring draws, side by side with plain Poisson, and a look at when it fixes nothing.
Elo Ratings Simulator
Two ratings and home advantage give a win expectancy; see how far a win, draw or defeat moves each side.
Logistic Regression Match Predictor
Set the gap in recent form, this season and last season, and see the home, draw and away chances from a model trained on 20 SPFL seasons.
Decision Tree Match Predictor
Set the gaps between two sides and follow a decision tree's three questions down to a group of past matches and its home, draw and away chances.
During and after the match
Players, luck and belief
Penalty Shootout Simulator
Set each side's penalty conversion rate and see how often each wins the shootout, sudden death included.
Penalty Game Solver
Set how often a taker scores on each side, with the keeper guessing right or wrong, and see how often each should go which way.
Form or luck?
A striker who never gets better or worse still has droughts and hot streaks. See how long, and how often, by chance alone.
How good is he really?
A new signing scores four penalties from four. Combine what you believed before with his record and see how good he is likely to be.