Football's favourite claims, tested against the data. Some survive.
One of football's oldest sayings is that the side bottom at Christmas goes down. In the Scottish Premiership it's mostly true. Of 26 sides bottom on Christmas Day, 18 finished bottom, and every one that escaped was within a point of the side above.
Beginner
Form goes out of the window in a derby, or so they say. Across 297 Scottish Premiership derbies with bookmakers' odds, the favourites won about as often as the odds said. Derbies are different in one way. They're feistier, with about three-quarters of a yellow card more a game.
Beginner
Promoted sides are said to struggle in their second year, once the novelty wears off. Of 23 that stayed up, 12 did better in year two and 11 worse. Sides with a great first season do fall back, but so does everyone else who over-performs.
Beginner
Tired legs, rotated squads, cold Tuesday nights. Midweek matches are supposed to be a different game. Over 10,000 Scottish league matches, they have the same results, the same upsets and, like for like, the same goals.
Beginner
Football is more attacking than ever, so the goalless draw must be disappearing. Over 10,000 Scottish league matches in 26 seasons, one match in 14 still ends 0–0, and the share hasn't budged.
Beginner
After 33 games the Scottish Premiership splits in two, and every spring someone calls it unfair. Over 25 seasons, the home games even out, but the fixtures don't. The side 7th at the split takes 2.6 more points from the last five than the side 6th.
Beginner
"They've had eight corners, they're all over them." Over 5,877 Scottish Premiership matches, the side with more corners won only 44% of the time, and once you know the shots, corners add nothing.
Beginner
"Forget the stats, look at the form." Over 26 Scottish Premiership seasons, a side's shot difference predicted its next six games better than its recent points did, and a gap of eight points in form shrank to under one.
Intermediate
Fans, pundits and managers all say home advantage is worth a goal. Over 18,000 Scottish league matches since 2000/01 say it is worth about a quarter of one.
Beginner
"The table never lies," they say at the end of every season. Over 26 Scottish Premiership seasons, luck alone moves a team's points total by about eight either way: enough to reshuffle mid-table, but not enough to fake a title.
Intermediate
Shots get dismissed as a vanity stat. Over 5,877 Scottish Premiership matches, the side with more shots won more than twice as often as it lost. But the side with more shots and fewer on target lost more than half the time.
Beginner
"Two-nil is the most dangerous lead in football." Over 10,000 Scottish league matches, a 2–0 half-time lead was won 92% of the time and lost about one time in forty.
Beginner