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Can you beat the bookies?

Real Scottish Premiership matches from 2002/03 to 2024/25. You see the teams and the season, not the score. Give each match your chances, then see how you did against the bookmaker's prices.

How many matches

    How to read it

    • Every match starts at the league averages: 44% home, 24% draw, 32% away. Change it only where you have a view.
    • Tap Home, Draw or Away to lean that way, then fine-tune with the sliders. Nothing goes below 1%: never say never.
    • The bookies' chances are Bet365's prices before kick-off with their margin taken out. Over 5,191 matches they gave what happened 38.6% on average; the league averages, 34.3%.
    • Draws are hard. They happen about one match in four, but the bookies never once made a draw the favourite.
    • The average is the one forecasters are judged by (log loss, in plain words), so one very low chance on what happened costs a lot. Score your own predictions shows how it works for one match.

    Do the bookmakers get Scottish football right?