Did the sacking, the signing or the new system cause it, or would it have happened anyway? How to find a fair comparison for the season that never happened. Best after Statistics.
7 parts Beginner to Intermediate
New to this? These parts are Beginner level: 1 and 2.
Start at part 1Of 26 Premiership sides bottom at Christmas, the seven that changed manager by the end of March all finished bottom, while eight of the 19 that kept theirs got off it. Why that comparison can't tell you what the change did, and the result you never get to see.
Beginner Part 1
Home sides take about a third of a point a game more than away sides. Compare matches where both sides had the same shots-on-target edge and the advantage all but disappears. Why that doesn't make home advantage a myth, and how a causal diagram tells you what to hold fixed.
Beginner Part 2
VAR arrived in the Premiership in October 2022; the Championship never got it. Comparing the two leagues' changes says VAR cut yellow cards by 0.6 a game and fouls by nearly two. A season-by-season check shows why neither claim holds.
Intermediate Part 3
After 33 games the Premiership splits and the side in sixth joins the top six. Next season, the sides that were sixth and seventh do just as well as each other. Widen the comparison and a top-six effect seems to appear. Why only the clubs right at the line can tell you about the line.
Intermediate Part 4
A coin toss decides who kicks first in a shootout, which makes it a real experiment. In StatsBomb's open data the side kicking first won 18 of 36, exactly half. Why that settles nothing, and how many shootouts it would take to tell.
Intermediate Part 5
Line up every Premiership manager change by the day it happened and look game by game. Sides that sacked their manager were sinking and then bounced; sides whose manager was poached were flying and then fell back. The line before the change tells you why it happened, and both end up where the club usually is.
Intermediate Part 6
Sides a goal up at half-time win 70% of the time; sides level win 32%. But the sides in front were usually the better sides before kick-off. Matching each leader with level sides that were just as fancied beforehand shows what the lead itself is worth, and what matching can never fix.
Intermediate Part 7