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11 results for “overfitting”

1. Machine Learning #3

   Brilliant in training, gone on matchday. Overfitting

   …vanishes on matchday. What counts is Saturday. The concept Overfitting is when a model learns the training data too well. Instead of the underlying patterns,…

2. Machine Learning #4

   Too simple or too clever? Underfitting vs overfitting

   …patterns and does poorly even on the data it was trained on. Overfitting: the model's too complicated. It learns the training data far too closely, noise and…

3. Glossary

   Overfitting

   Learning the training matches too well, luck included, so the model does worse on matches it hasn't seen.

4. Machine Learning #9

   Three questions and a prediction. Decision trees

   …matches, and most of that confidence is wrong. That's overfitting, exactly as the lookup rules showed earlier in the series, and the depth of the tree is the…

5. Machine Learning #5

   Stubborn or jumpy? Bias and variance

   …hand in hand with underfitting, from underfitting vs overfitting. Variance: changing its mind at the slightest nudge Give a second model everything: recent…

6. Machine Learning #11

   Learning from its mistakes. Gradient boosting

   …it will start fixing "mistakes" that were just luck: overfitting again. So how many rounds? Not by looking at the test seasons, which would spoil the exam.…

7. Machine Learning #8

   Home, draw or away, with probabilities. A first real model, logistic regression

   …been easier to predict. The gap that would worry us, overfitting, runs the other way. And, as is accuracy the right score? predicted, it never picks a draw:…

8. Machine Learning #7

   Is accuracy the right score? Evaluating a model

   …Both are tried here on the same test as underfitting vs overfitting: Scottish Premiership models trained on 2000/01 to 2020/21 and tested on the 990 matches of…

9. Myth or Maths

   Do teams struggle after an international break?

   …when there's nothing there. That's the trap described in overfitting: a rule built from a handful of memorable games. Verdict Not supported. Results straight…

10. Calculus #6

    How does a model learn? Rolling downhill with gradient descent

    …Rolling to the very bottom of the training error can mean overfitting; the test data still has the final say. Goals per game is one number. Squad changes,…

11. Machine Learning #15

    Matches like this one. K-nearest neighbours

    …bench. That's too jumpy, high variance, and the same overfitting a deep decision tree showed in part 9. Too many neighbours is too stubborn. At 800, the…