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14 results for “xG”

1. Statistics #1

   Goal or miss? The Bernoulli distribution

   …= 0.03. And you've already seen this idea on screen: xG. Expected goals estimates that probability, p, for each shot, using things like distance, angle, body…

2. Glossary

   Expected goals (xG)

   How many goals a side's chances were worth on average, adding up the chance of scoring from each shot.

3. Machine Learning #20

   Expected goals from scratch. Where everyone stood

   …it's saved. Was that a good chance? Expected goals, or xG, answers with a number: how often a shot like that goes in. An xG of 0.10 means about one in ten.…

4. Machine Learning #1

   What are we trying to predict? Features and targets

   …because the match has been played. Value Home Yes Recent xG 1.84 Recent xGA 0.91 Opponent strength 73 Rest days 6 Target: result Win Made-up example numbers.…

5. Model

   Did we deserve to win?

   Enter each side's shots as xG and see who the chances favoured, and the points each side deserved.

6. Machine Learning #5

   Stubborn or jumpy? Bias and variance

   …third, so the model backs Celtic. It knows nothing about xG, injuries, home advantage, form or who's suspended. That's high bias. The model's predictions are…

7. Machine Learning #3

   Brilliant in training, gone on matchday. Overfitting

   …to do a decent job on matches it's never seen. Recent xG and xGA, home advantage, opponent strength, injuries, rest days and recent form all carry real…

8. Machine Learning #11

   Learning from its mistakes. Gradient boosting

   …data with many columns. Its well-known versions, such as XGBoost and LightGBM, win data science competitions and run inside many real prediction systems. It's…

9. Myth or Maths

   Do more shots mean a better attack?

   …and a 35-yard hopeful count the same. Expected goals (xG) weighs each shot by its quality, but these files don't include it. Blocked shots count as shots but…

10. Myth or Maths

    Does form matter more than underlying performance?

    …Shots are a rough measure of performance. Expected goals (xG) would be better, but these files don't include it. Shots still did better than points. The…

11. Machine Learning #12

    Every team its own attack and defence. Dixon-Coles from scratch

    …can inflate a rating. Ratings built on expected goals (xG) are often steadier, but the data here doesn't have it. No team news. Injuries, suspensions, a new…

12. Machine Learning #16

    How many shots is a goal worth? Linear regression

    …and a 30-yard hopeful count the same. Expected goals (xG) would weigh each chance, but this data doesn't have it. Straight lines only. The bands sit close to…

13. Calculus #1

    How quickly is he getting up to speed? Rate of change, or, yes… calculus

    …football data. Speed, acceleration, how quickly a team's xG is rising through a match, how fast a player's output is declining with age. Averages hide the…

14. Calculus #4

    We know how fast he was running. How far did he get? Integration

    …integral. Distance covered, high-speed running, even an xG timeline, where the chances pile up into a running total through the match. The slices matter. A GPS…